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On Jan 20/04 India and
Russia signed a $947 million deal to refurbish and convert the Soviet/Russian
Admiral Gorshkov into a
full carrier, to be re-named Vikramaditya. The announced delivery date for
Vikramaditya was August 2008 – an
ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in
2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier INs Viraat (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur
class) was scheduled to retire. The new carrier would berth at the karwar on India’s west coast.
That was the plan.
Unfortunately, the Vikramaditya story is sadly typical of both Indian defense
procurement, and of Russia’s defense industry.
Initial reports of
delays sparked controversy and denials in India, but subsequent events more
than justified them. Slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times
quickly pushed delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010, and then to 2012 or
later, even as Russia’s asking price more than doubled. India’s sunk
construction costs, Russian possession of the Gorshkov, the difficulty in
finding a substitute carrier to replace the Gorshkov sooner than 2013, and the
Chinese push with the Varyag, have all combined to give the Russians
substantial leverage in their negotiations. They have exploited that leverage
to the fullest.
Cost estimates and
reports concerning the Gorshkov’s final total now hover in the $2.9 billion
range, following the revised project agreement of March 2010.
As is customary with
Indian defense procurement, transparency arrived only after after all other
alternatives had been exhausted.
Neither assessment
turned out to be true, nor subsequent updates proved the
critics to be correct. After
the delivery delays could no longer be denied, the initial approach was to
minimize their length. February 2008 news reports, however, began to give
figures of up to 3-4 years before refurbishment and testing could allow the
ship to enter service. Subsequent reports by Indian and Russian sources
stressed 2012, or even later.
Those estimates, at
least, turned out to be true. INS Viraat’s retirement was moved to 2012 – but
it soon became clear that even that might not be late enough. The ship was
scheduled to retire in 2009, but events forced India into another refit,
leaving the country without a carrier for almost a year. Even with the refit,
Viraat nearing the limits of her mechanical life, and shortages of flyable sea
harrier fighters are creating
issues of their own.
India’s locally-built
Vikrant Class escort carrier project won’t be a solution either, as its
delivery date appears to be slipping to 2017 or later.
This leaves India’s
Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force. They
hoped that Vikramaditya’s induction at the end of 2012 will allow them to field
a credible carrier strike group some time in 2013, but basic engineering flaws
mean that even the handover isn’t likely to take place until late 2013.
Meanwhile, China is
working hard to refurbish the 58,000t ex-Russian carrier Varyag, and has begun
tests as of 2012. In September 2012, reports surfaced that the ship would be
named “Liaoning,” in honor of the province where it was retrofitted.
